It is no secret that Bill Parcells and Company abhor wide receivers with diva personalities. Because of this intolerance, the Tuna is well known for never selecting wide receivers in the first round of the NFL Draft.
As a Dolphins fan, no matter how badly I would like to see the team add a prime time receiver through the draft, I cannot fault the team for passing on the likes of Dez Bryant or Arrelious Benn in the first round.
History is known to repeat itself, and a detailed analysis of drafts over the past decade (see links below) reveals that nearly 50% of all wide receivers taken in the first round have been demoralizing busts.
Dolphins fans know this risk and the resulting heartache all too well after watching Ted Ginn embarrass the franchise every time he suits up for a game. After three years in the league, Ted Ginn is only half as productive as 5'9" Davone Bess who went undrafted in 2007, the year the Dolphins made Ginn the ninth overall pick in the draft.
Given the high bust rate, why should the Dolphins, a team with so many holes to fill, roll the dice on a wide out? After missing on Ted Ginn, Jason Allen, Eddie Moore, Pat White, Samson Satele, Matt Roth, and so many others, this team cannot afford to waste high draft picks on players who fail to become impact starters.
The problem is that Bill Parcels has some seriously flawed logic when it comes to drafting wide outs beyond the first round. Just because first round wide outs are busts, does not mean that it makes sense to look for impact wide outs in later rounds.
While the bust rate is almost 50% for first round wide outs, this rate gets progressively higher with each subsequent round. If you think the odds of finding a star wide out in the first round are daunting, just wait until you're throwing darts in the dark in rounds 5 or 6.
Sure the league always features wide outs like Miles Austin and Marques Colston who were not high draft picks. Here is the problem: each year approximately 3 of the 6 wide outs taken in the top 50 picks will be success stories, and approximately 3 or 4 of the 20 plus wide outs taken in the next 200 or so remaining picks will be success stories.
Some evaluators will observe that just as many starters are plucked from later rounds as from the first two rounds, and conclude that their team might as well draft a wide out late in the draft. Savvier people will realize that this is wrong, since the odds of finding a starter at the top of the draft are about 50% (3 out of 6), whereas the odds of finding a starter late in the draft are merely 15 or 20% (approx. 3 or 4 out of 20+).
In other words, drafting a guy in the middle to late rounds and expecting him to become the next Miles Austin or Marques Colston is about as wise as spending your retirement savings at the Hialeah Racetrack.
If the Dolphins are keen on finally getting some weapons for Chad Henne so they can stop relying on a gimmicky offense to put points on the board, then they need to go after a sure thing.
There were only two sure things available at wide out this offseason, Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall, and one of them is already off the market.
If the Dolphins were smart, they would gladly cough up their first round pick to secure the rights to Brandon Marshall. Sure, he won't come cheaply. As a matter of fact, he will likely command a contract at least as big as Boldin's four year $28 million deal.
To put this in perspective, however, Dolphins' latest bust in resident Tedd Ginn signed a five year $20 million deal as the teams' first round pick in 2007. Two years later, the Oakland Raiders selected bust in the making Darius Heyward Bey (just a few spots above where the Dolphins will select in the draft) and handed him a six year $38 million contract to become the team's feature wide out.
If you were standing in Bill Parcells' shoes, what would you rather do: (a) sacrifice a first round pick for the right to sign Brandon Marshall, a 26 year old pro bowl wide out, for $30-$40 million; or (b) use your first round pick for the right to hand a 21 year old, like Dez Bryant, with a 50% chance of being a complete bust, a contract for $25-$35 million?
In my mind, this is not even a question. In Bill Parcells' mind, unfortunately, the draft is where he plans to find his next Miles Austin.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/receivers/070425
http://www.blueandsilverreport.com/2010/02/19/cowboys-draft-10-bust-factors-for-wide-receivers/
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