I admit that I am on record saying that I have very little confidence in Riley heading into this offseason. Last time he had this kind of money to spend, he handed Brian Grant and Eddie Jones max deals. This year, I am afraid that he is going to jettison Beasley and/or Haslem in order to add one of several big name free agent PFs on the market.
Haslem and Beasley, who collectively made $11 mill last season, combined to average 25 points and 16 rebounds at the PF spot last season. I would be hard pressed to find any free agent PFs who could put up those kind of numbers.
What the Heat really needs is a PG who is better than Chalmers or Arroyo, a C who can get them at least 10 points and 10 rebounds and a SF who can drop 20 points with some regularity.
Unfortunately for the Heat, assuming LeBron is not really interested in Miami, the biggest name free agents available are Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, and Carlos Boozer. I mention these three in particular because Riley has made it known that he wants to sign a big man.
Stoudemire is 6'9", has a long injury history, has never played defense or rebounded well, and has only averaged 20 points and 8 rebounds in Phoenix's high octane offense with Steve Nash throwing him alley oops. Chris Bosh is a frail 6'10", cannot play center, and is more of a stretch four who can shoot it out to the three point line. Carlos Boozer is 6'8", injured almost every season, and is basically the player many once thought Michael Beasley was, and still may be, capable of becoming.
All three of these guys are looking for max deals. It would be a huge mistake to get rid of Beasley and possibly Haslem, and their combined 25/16 at $11 mill, collectively, in order to pay a guy like Amare Stoudemire $15-$17 mill per year to get you 20/8 at the PF spot. I fear that this is one of Riley's grand plans for free agency, but this would not help the Heat considerably.
What the Heat needs to do with their $23-26 mill in projected cap space is the following:
(1) First, sign versatile Joe Johnson who can play PG (he averages 5 assists a game) or SF in a pinch. Joe Johnson, who can probably be signed for $10-12 mill per year, can split his time between PG and SF, something he has already done in his career.
(2) Second, the Heat needs to bring back Dorell Wright for $3-5 mill a season to play significant minutes at SF. With Joe Johnson splitting time between PG and SF, Dorell can get 20-25 minutes a night at SG & SF as a sixth man off the bench kind of like Matt Barnes in Orlando.
(3) Third, with approximately $10 million of remaining cap space, the Heat should make Luke Ridnour, a free agent from the Bucks who averaged about 11 points and 4 assists as a back up last season, their new PG for around $4 mill per year.
(4) Fourth, with the remaining $6 million or so in cap space, the Heat should either bring back Haslem or sign a solid veteran center like Brendan Haywood, who averages 10 points and 10 rebounds per game.
(5) Fifth, if I am not mistaken, the Heat should have a mid level exception of about $5.5 million to use. Thus, if they use their remaining cap space above to sign someone like Haywood, then they could use their mid level to bring back Haslem. I suspect that he can be had for 4 year deal worth around $24 million, which would work under the mid level exception.
(6) Sixth, draft a versatile big man, unless the team misses out on a PG like Luke Ridnour in free agency. There is a good possibility that Daniel Orton, a PF/C from Kentucky, Larry Sanders, a PF/C from VCU, or Kevin Seraphin, a stud PF/C from France, will be available when the Heat selects in the first round.
If the Heat fails to land a PG in free agency, however, then I think they take a long look at Dominique Jones of South Florida, a combo guard who is a slightly less athletic version of D Wade, or Eric Bledsoe, a scoring PG from Kentucky, both of whom could be on the board.
(7) Finally, complete the roster with some solid second round picks like Dwayne Collins of Miami or Trevor Booker of Clemson, and some veteran minimum contracts.
I think if Riley did something like this, then we could build a championship team in South Florida. Unfortunately, my plan only entails bringing in one big name free agent, Joe Johnson, when Riley wants two big names.
Riley wants two big names even if it makes no sense given the availability of Beasley and Haslem as a cheaper, more effective alternative at PF, and he is willing to get rid of one or both of those guys in order to create cap space to do so.
My plan:
PG: Luke Ridnour & Joe Johnson with Chalmers or Arroyo as a back up
SG: Dwyane Wade, backed up by Joe Johnson and Dorell Wright
SF: Joe Johnson, backed up by Dorell Wright
PF: Beasley and Haslem backed up by Dwayne Collins
C: Brendan Haywood backed up by Joel Anthony and either Daniel Orton, Kevin Seraphin, or Larry Sanders
I think this team could emerge as a title contender. Wade would be the superstar, Johnson would be the Scottie Pippen- a versatile and equally important ego-less superstar who deferred to Wade, Ridnour would be the best PG that team has had in 5 years, Haywood would be a Udonis Haslem like presence at Center who rebounds and plays defense, and Beasley and Haslem could continue to combine for 25 or more points and 15 or more rebounds per night (exceeding the production of an Amare Stoudemire or Carlos Boozer).
Riley's probable plan:
Surround Dwyane Wade with two superstars, if possible, and a bunch of minimum contract players.
The Celtics have four stars: Rondo, Garnett, Allen, and Pierce, a solid starting Center in Perkins, and a good sixth man in Wallace, and they are being exposed by the Lakers. If the Celtics cannot win with four great players and two good players, then how can the Heat win with three great players and a bunch of minimum contract guys?
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